1. Capacity Market Design
Japan's capacity market launched in 2020 to ensure future supply adequacy by procuring generation capacity 4 years in advance.
2. FY2025 Main Auction Results (FY2029 Delivery)
Total contracted: 166,080 MW; Total value: ¥2.2094 trillion (record high, +19% YoY); Average clearing price: ¥13,303/kW (record high, +20% YoY). For the first time, all areas exceeded Net CONE (¥10,075/kW), signaling nationwide supply tightness.
3. Area Segmentation
Tohoku, Tokyo, and Kyushu reached the upper price limit (¥15,113/kW = 1.5× Net CONE). Tokyo contracted capacity fell ~1,670 MW vs FY2028, indicating a widening supply gap.
4. Historical Trend (Auctions 1-6)
| Delivery Year | Capacity (MW) | Avg Price (¥/kW) | Total (¥100M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 (1st) | 176,720 | 14,137 | — |
| FY2025 (2nd) | 170,730 | 9,425 | — |
| FY2026 (3rd) | 171,750 | 11,600 | — |
| FY2027 (4th) | 169,080 | 11,700 | — |
| FY2028 (5th) | 166,240 | 11,100 | 18,540 |
| FY2029 (6th) | 166,080 | 13,303 | 22,094 |
5. Net CONE Revision Outlook
Preliminary calculations suggest raising Net CONE to over ¥20,000/kW (more than double current ¥10,075/kW), making structural reform increasingly urgent.
