Market Data
Japan Capacity Market: Historical Auction Comparison
Main Auction Results FY2024–FY2029
Main Auction Last Updated: Jan 29, 2025
Net CONE (Reference Price) Historical Trend
| Year | Net CONE (¥/kW) | Target (GW) | FIT Expected (GW) | Long-term Decarb (GW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 9,425 | 177.47 | 11.79 | — |
| FY2025 | 9,372 | 176.99 | 18.89 | — |
| FY2026 | 9,557 | 178.30 | 21.09 | — |
| FY2027 | 9,769 | 184.47 | 22.65 | 1.20 |
| FY2028 | 9,875 | 186.16 | 20.83 | 1.86 |
| FY2029 | 10,075 | 189.97 | 22.26 | 3.43 |
| FY2030Est. | 10,500 | 192.50 | 24.10 | 5.20 |
Source: OCCTO Capacity Market Main Auction Clearing Results (Official Publications)
https://www.occto.or.jp/capacity-market/yoryoshijyo/main/data/ ↗Supplementary Auction
Supplementary Capacity Auction Results
The supplementary auction supplements the main auction for years where the target procurement volume was not met. FY2025 was the first supplementary auction held.
| Delivery Year | Published | Cleared Volume | Total Value (after adj.) | Area Prices (¥/kW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | Jul 10, 2024 | 133 MW×100 | ~105 ¥B | 北海道 13,761東京 3,495九州 5,029 |
| FY2026 | Jul 28, 2025 | 830 MW×100 | ~582 ¥B | 北海道/東北/東京/中部 8,749北陸/関西/中国/四国 8,213九州 8,591 |
Source: OCCTO Supplementary Auction Clearing Results
Decarbonization Capacity Market
Long-term Decarbonization Power Auction (LTDA) Results
LTDA guarantees 20-year fixed-cost recovery for decarbonization power sources, split into "decarbonization sources" and "LNG-only thermal" categories. Individual contract prices are not disclosed; weighted average unit price is estimated from total value ÷ total volume.
| Round | Category | Target | Cleared | Total Value/yr | Avg. Unit Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1 FY2023応札 | Decarb Sources | 400 万kW | 401.0 万kW | 2,336 億円 | ~5.8 万円/kW·年 |
| LNG-only Thermal | 600 万kW | 575.6 万kW | 1,766 億円 | ~3.1 万円/kW·年 | |
| Round 2 FY2024応札 | Decarb Sources | 500 万kW | 503.0 万kW | 3,464 億円 | ~6.9 万円/kW·年 |
| LNG-only Thermal | 224 万kW | 131.5 万kW | 456 億円 | ~3.5 万円/kW·年 | |
Round 3NEW FY2025応札 | Decarb Sources | 500 万kW | 426.1 万kW 未達 73.9万kW | 4,748 億円 | ~11.1 万円/kW·年 |
| LNG-only Thermal | 293 万kW | 303.8 万kW | 1,444 億円 | ~4.6 万円/kW·年 |
Round 3 Key Rule Changes
- • Price cap raised: ¥100,000 → ¥200,000/kW·yr (significant increase)
- • Battery storage: 6h+ only (sub-6h excluded from Round 3 onwards)
- • H2/NH3 next-gen tech: variable costs at 40% utilization factor can be included in bid price
- • Auction format: multi-price (each bid price becomes the contract price)
Round 3 Notable Winning Sources
Decarb Sources (426.1 MW×100)
- • Battery (Li-ion): 81.9 MW×100
- • Battery (non-Li-ion): 88.6 MW×100
- • Nuclear (new: Ohma Unit 1)
- • Nuclear (safety: Tomari Unit 1): 55.8 MW×100
- • H2-only, NH3 co-fire, biomass-only (several units)
LNG-only Thermal (303.8 MW×100)
- • JERA 袖ヶ浦 1・2号
- • Hokuriku Electric Toyama Shinko LNG Unit 2
- • Kyushu Electric Shin-Kokura Unit 6
Source: OCCTO Long-term Decarbonization Power Auction clearing results, METI documents
https://www.occto.or.jp/various/capacity-market/jitsujukyukanren/yoryokakuhokeiyaku.html ↗
https://www.occto.or.jp/various/capacity-market/jitsujukyukanren/yoryokakuhokeiyaku.html ↗