2026 Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed LNG spot prices to $20/mmBtu, directly raising Japan's thermal power generation marginal costs. This article quantifies the transmission mechanism and time lag between LNG prices and JEPX electricity prices.
Japan is one of the world's largest LNG importers, with LNG-fired thermal generation accounting for approximately 35–40% of total electricity generation. Consequently, LNG spot price movements have a direct and significant impact on JEPX electricity prices.
[APRIL 2026 MARKET DATA]
JKM LNG Spot Price: ~$20.0/mmBtu (up ~35% from end-2025)
Efficient CCGT Marginal Cost: ~¥15/kWh (providing JEPX price floor support)
This article references the following official publications and public data:
免責聲明 / Disclaimer： Blog articles are for educational and reference purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
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