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Market Analysis11 articles

Market Analysis

The Duck Curve Normalized: How Solar Power Is Reshaping JEPX Intraday Price Structure
Market Analysis

The Duck Curve Normalized: How Solar Power Is Reshaping JEPX Intraday Price Structure

Spring 2026 saw unprecedented JEPX spot market behavior: daytime prices collapsing to ¥0.01/kWh while evening peaks surged above ¥30. The duck curve has normalized from an occasional anomaly into a structural market feature.

8min
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How LNG Price Surges Transmit to JEPX Electricity Prices: 2026 Middle East Geopolitical Risk Analysis
Market Analysis

How LNG Price Surges Transmit to JEPX Electricity Prices: 2026 Middle East Geopolitical Risk Analysis

2026 Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed LNG spot prices to $20/mmBtu, directly raising Japan's thermal power generation marginal costs. This article quantifies the transmission mechanism and time lag between LNG prices and JEPX electricity prices.

10min
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Regional Price Spread Trading Strategy: Profiting from East-West Japan Electricity Price Differentials
Market Analysis

Regional Price Spread Trading Strategy: Profiting from East-West Japan Electricity Price Differentials

The limited capacity of frequency conversion equipment between East Japan (50Hz) and West Japan (60Hz) creates persistent regional price differentials. With Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant offline in 2026, the east-west spread has widened further.

9min
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Japan Electricity Futures Market: Current Status and 2026 Outlook
Market Analysis

Japan Electricity Futures Market: Current Status and 2026 Outlook

TOCOM electricity futures volume surged fivefold in 2025, reaching 96.4% of spot market size in January 2026. This deep-dive covers product structures on TOCOM and EEX, price trends, participant profiles, and the transformative JJ-Link integration framework.

18min
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Japan Capacity Market Deep Dive: System Design, Auction Mechanism & Contract Terms
Market Analysis

Japan Capacity Market Deep Dive: System Design, Auction Mechanism & Contract Terms

The capacity market is one of the core institutions of Japan's electricity system reform, designed to ensure long-term supply adequacy. Based on OCCTO's latest February 2026 Capacity Assurance Contract Terms, this article provides a deep analysis of market architecture, auction processes, contract amount formulas, performance obligations, and penalty structures.

20min
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How LNG Prices Transmit to JEPX Electricity Prices: 2026 Middle East Geopolitical Risk Analysis
Market Analysis

How LNG Prices Transmit to JEPX Electricity Prices: 2026 Middle East Geopolitical Risk Analysis

On February 28, 2026, the US-Israel-Iran conflict erupted, the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, and Qatar's LNG facilities were damaged. Asian JKM spot prices surged from $10 to $25.30/MMBtu within five weeks. This article analyzes the transmission mechanism from LNG prices to JEPX electricity markets, historical precedents, and the electricity market risk landscape under the 2026 geopolitical shock.

16min
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EPRX Balancing Market Primer: A Complete Guide to Ancillary Service Products and Trading Mechanisms
Market Analysis

EPRX Balancing Market Primer: A Complete Guide to Ancillary Service Products and Trading Mechanisms

The Japan Electric Power Exchange for Balancing (EPRX) is the core infrastructure supporting stable grid operation in Japan. Based on the latest official guidebook revised in April 2026, this article provides a thorough analysis of ancillary service product design (primary through tertiary), ΔkW trading logic, battery storage bidding, and participation pathways for retailers and aggregators.

20min
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Japan Capacity Market Complete Guide: Auction Mechanism, Provider Qualifications, and Capacity Fee Calculation
Market Analysis

Japan Capacity Market Complete Guide: Auction Mechanism, Provider Qualifications, and Capacity Fee Calculation

Japan's capacity market (容量メカニズム) is the core mechanism ensuring long-term power system reliability. This guide covers the capacity auction mechanism, provider qualification requirements, and how capacity fees are calculated and ultimately reflected in electricity bills.

15min
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Japan Long-Term Decarbonization Power Auction: System Design, CfD Settlement, and Auction Results
Market Analysis

Japan Long-Term Decarbonization Power Auction: System Design, CfD Settlement, and Auction Results

Japan's Long-Term Decarbonization Power Source Auction (LTDA) is a 20-year capacity CfD scheme designed to drive decarbonization in the power sector. This guide covers the system architecture, CfD settlement mechanics, the three-tier market revenue clawback, and complete results from Round 1 (FY2023) and Round 2 (FY2024).

18min
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EPRX Supply-Demand Adjustment Market: Products, Bidding Mechanism & Latest Trends
Market Analysis

EPRX Supply-Demand Adjustment Market: Products, Bidding Mechanism & Latest Trends

A comprehensive guide to Japan's EPRX balancing market: five product tiers, ΔkW bidding and clearing mechanics, composite market design, and the sweeping 2026 reforms including day-ahead transition, procurement volume cuts, and price cap reductions — with implications for battery storage operators.

22min
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Japan's Three Electricity Markets Explained: JEPX Spot, EPRX Balancing & Capacity Market — Purposes, Mechanisms & Timelines
Market Analysis

Japan's Three Electricity Markets Explained: JEPX Spot, EPRX Balancing & Capacity Market — Purposes, Mechanisms & Timelines

A complete guide to Japan's three electricity markets: JEPX spot market (energy trading), EPRX balancing market (frequency regulation), and the capacity market (supply adequacy) — each with distinct purposes, bidding mechanisms, and timelines, together forming Japan's complete market-based power system infrastructure.

18min
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